Technology Predictions Are Mostly Bunk

by Steve on December 28, 2009

in General, Inspiration

“Inventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no hope for further developments,” said Roman engineer Julius Sextus Frontinus in 10 A.D. This end-of-progress view has been echoed many times, including by Charles Duell, commissioner for the U.S. Patent Office, who in 1899 said, “Everything that can be invented has already been invented.”

It’s worth recalling, especially in a gloomy year like the one drawing to an end, that the opposite is true: The more we invent, the more we invent. Knowledge grows on itself.

So here are the rest of my Top 10 Worst Technology Predictions, which prove that when it comes to tech, optimism pays:

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys,” Sir William Preece, chief engineer at the British Post Office, 1878.

“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” H.M. Warner, Warner Bros., 1927.

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers,” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night,” Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946.

“The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most,” IBM executives to the eventual founders of Xerox, 1959.

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home,” Ken Olsen, founder of mainframe-producer Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

“No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer—640K ought to be enough for anybody,” Bill Gates, Microsoft, 1981.

“Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput,” Sir Alan Sugar, British entrepreneur, 2005.

via Gordon Crovitz: Technology Predictions Are Mostly Bunk – WSJ.com.

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On Fighting the Government

by Steve on September 26, 2009

in General

Nothing in recent memory has inflamed the passions of ordinary Americans more than the current administration’s attempted takeover of America’s health care. I don’t think even the events of September 11, 2001 did, at least for this length of time.

The people who call themselves ‘progressives’ are on the march to accomplish their vision of a socialist Utopia in the United States, and a lot of us in the heartland don’t like it.

We don’t like it for a number of reasons: we resent that the omniscient, omnipotent lawyers who make up the vast majority of the government are trying to extend their power over we serfs in yet another fashion; we don’t agree that unlimited medical care is a ‘right’ that is endowed on an American (or illegal immigrant, for that matter) by the mere act of being alive; we don’t agree that by virtue of living in the U.S. the fruits of our labors belong to the collective; we believe in the right of the individual over the right of the state; we believe that the Constitution recognizes these principles and has been distorted by those whose vision differs from the vision of the founders; and more.

Thousands of people comment on blogs, write letters to the editors of newspapers and news magazines and news sites. “Give me liberty or give me death!,” “Don’t tread on me!”, “Put me in jail because the government isn’t going to dictate the terms of my existence.”

The grassroots are declaring their intention to fight.

But the people who are advancing the socialist agenda aren’t worried. They’ll write and enact the laws that confiscate your hard-earned money by force, whether it’s for ‘health care’ or ‘cap and trade’, or whatever.

They know you won’t fight.

They know you won’t answer your front door with a gun in your hand when the U.S. Marshal shows up to take you into custody for tax evasion because you refused to pay “your fair share”. They know that you’ll see the FBI coming to your house wrapped in helmets and body armor, carrying automatic weapons and riot shotguns, and you’ll stand in your doorway and piss in your pants and do whatever they say.

They know you’d rather endure and make the best of whatever situation they create than choose to fight back. Because they know if you truly fight back, you’ll die. And you know it too.

And you won’t do it.

Nor will I, honestly. I will take what they dish out and live with it. I’ll be a good little submissive American, knowing that my government knows what’s best for me. I can’t fight city hall. I damned sure can’t fight the federal government.

We all know what happened at Waco, what happened at Ruby Ridge. We know that the people who have the power are itching to use it.

Some people like to spout what Thomas Jefferson wrote:

“God forbid we should ever be twenty years without such a rebellion. The people cannot be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented, in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions, it is lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty. … And what country can preserve its liberties, if its rulers are not warned from time to time, that this people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to the facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time, with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.”

Powerful words, those. But we as a country are beyond them. Jefferson advised that if our country’s “rulers are not warned from time to time”, that if those that form the government don’t understand “that this people preserve the spirit of resistance” then “Let them take arms.” He also knew that after 20 years, the existing government would be so entrenched that it would be almost impossible to dislodge. Breaking news: 20 years passed a LONG TIME AGO.

Armchair patriots like to quote Thomas Jefferson and spout big. They huff their chests and want to ’spill the blood of the tyrants’ of government. It ain’t gonna happen, guys and gals. You’re going to go up against the combined firepower of the FBI, the ATF, the NSA, and all the other letter groups? Right-o.

Here’s what’ll really happen: you’ll spout off, you’ll get together with some like-minded buddies, ready to take on the might of the US government. You’ll blog about it, you’ll write about it.

Then, one dark and moonless night, at around 4 in the morning because that’s when you’re most vulnerable, they’ll come to get you. They’ll ram your doors in, yelling at the top of their lungs, flash-bang grenades will go off, you’ll be blind and deaf and you won’t know what’s going on. You won’t be able to move, and you’ll shit your drawers from terror. Then they’ll strap you up, and take you away, whimpering and crying, to a nice safe federal penitentiary.

And another terrorist plot will have been foiled.

Go back to sleep and dream, my fellow Americans, take comfort in the knowledge that you are secure and that the people in Washington, D.C. are diligently watching over you as they slowly, transparently and openly, relieve you of your freedoms.

Liberty, true liberty, is dead. And has been for a long time.

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Harry Reid and the Abuse of Power

by Steve on August 30, 2009

in General

Abuse of the power of office is just one of those things we live with if we don’t want to live in anarchy.

From Sherman Frederick, publisher of  the Las Vegas Review-Journal, on the bullying tactics and threats coming from esteemed senator Harry Reid:

On Wednesday, before he addressed a Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce luncheon, Reid joined the chamber’s board members for a meet-’n'-greet and a photo. One of the last in line was the Review-Journal’s director of advertising, Bob Brown, a hard-working Nevadan who toils every day on behalf of advertisers. He has nothing to do with news coverage or the opinion pages of the Review-Journal.

Yet, as Bob shook hands with our senior U.S. senator in what should have been nothing but a gracious business setting, Reid said: “I hope you go out of business.”

Later, in his public speech, Reid said he wanted to let everyone know that he wants the Review-Journal to continue selling advertising because the Las Vegas Sun is delivered inside the Review-Journal.

Good on you, Mr. Frederick.

Statists in the upper pinnacles of power like Harry Reid can get away with or do almost anything because no one will challenge them. They fear the consequences, and rightly so. Mr. Reid (and I use “Mr.” as an honorific just to keep things civil) weilds great clout – no doubt he could ruin me or any other private citizen or small business without so much as batting an eye.

So it is refreshing and encouraging to see people begin to stand against the machine. The machine needs to go away.

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